‘ Minimising Cost of Future Liquidity and Preventing Financial Crisis ‘

#AceFinanceNews – BRUSSELS – September 22 – Implementing the EU response to minimising the public cost of future financial crises and getting banks to offer up loans top the agenda this WEEK it was reproted by EUobserver.  

European Central Bank (ECB) chief Mario Draghi on Monday (22 September) is set to debate the so-called targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs) with MEPs in the committee on economic affairs.

The idea is to improve bank lending to the eurozone by offering banks extra liquidity at a fixed rate for up to four years.

But the scheme attracted just €82.6bn (out of the €400bn on offer) of interest from banks this month.

Draghi had earlier this month surprised analysts by slashing interest rates to a historic low in an effort to stimulate lending.

The ECB cut is part of a larger attempt by EU policy makers to kick start member states’ overall sluggish economies and put millions of unemployed back to work.

But with the prospect of possibly having to fend off another financial crisis, lawmakers also tasked the ECB to oversee the financial health of around 130 banks with the power to shut them down.

Also known as the single supervisory mechanism, the newly endowed ECB oversight of banks is part of the single resolution mechanism (SRM), which aims to minimize bank bailout costs to taxpayers.

SOURCE:

#AFN2014

#banks, #brussels, #ecb, #european-central-bank, #eurozone, #financial-crisis, #liquidity, #mario-draghi

` German Finance Ministry ` European Central Bank ‘ to raise ` Interest Rates ‘ citing an internal Document ‘

#AceFinanceNews – ECB – March 30 – Experts at the German finance ministry expect the European Central Bank to raise key interest rates soon due to the economy picking up, a German news weekly said on Sunday, citing an internal document –

With the Eurozone debt crisis increasingly fading and an improving economy, “an active contribution to the overcoming of the low interest policy is to be expected” from the ECB, Spiegel quoted the ministry document as saying.

That will lead to Germany having to pay more for its loans in a year’s time than it currently does, according to the experts at Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s ministry.

The ECB has held its key interest rates at an all-time low of 0.25 percent since November and analysts do not expect a cut by the Frankfurt-based bank at its meeting this week.

#AFN2014

#aceworldnews, #ans2014, #ecb, #european-central-bank, #eurozone, #frankfurt, #german, #wolfgang-schauble

EU Negotiator’s First Steps To Bank Supervision

Under the deal, if the board of the ECB decides to reject a decision by the new supervisor, the parliament chief and the head of the relevant parliamentary committee will have to be informed in confidence.

The head of the bank supervisor will be appointed by member states and the European Parliament and they will both have the power to recall that person from the job.http://euobserver.com/economic/121382

#acefinancenews, #banks, #ecb, #european-parliament

Mario Draghi-Call Me Bond Junk Bond

Printer Mario Draghi

Printer Mario Draghi (Photo credit: Ondrej Kloucek)

The Before Thursday:

After Ben Bernanke took the stage in Jackson Hole last week to rather defensively suggest the Fed will act soon, Thursday is Mario Draghi’s turn.

Before we get into the details of what the ECB could announce, a quick update on the European debt crisis: It’s still there. Yields for Spanish and Portuguese debt are at or above the 7% danger zone, and Italy is publicly complaining that their debt costs have little basis,Jens Weidmann, Germany’s top central banker, meanwhile, is reportedly both isolated and threatening to quit over his opposition to the ECB buying debt of struggling EU countries.

In a closed-door meeting in Brussels yesterday, Mario Draghi told the European Parliament that he’d be comfortable buying EU members’ bonds with maturities of three years or so. This, Draghi reportedly said, wouldn’t violate EU treaties. (Bill Gross tweeted that this bond-buying program would be something like writing “2-3 year checks”).

Of course, ECB bond-buying has been the summer’s worst-kept secret. As the WSJ’s Matt Phillips noted, Draghi said this on July 25: “To the extent that the size of these sovereign premia (in Spain and Italy) hamper the functioning of the monetary policy transmission channel, they come within our mandate”.

Draghi’s hints mean that three years into the European debt crisis, the ECB may finally return to limited, direct financing of struggling governments. Analysts, however, are all over the map about what the ECB may actually announce after its meeting on Thursday, and whether it will involve yield caps.

One safe bet: more political entanglement. Even though Draghi insists the ECB is not political, his actions are still very much wrapped into discussions on what he recently called “the sharing of powers and of accountability”. Or, as Nomura put it: “Just imagine if the Fed had to play tough with California or worse Texas for example, to effectively impart monetary policy”.

The Economist‘s Charlemagne blog has a great description of Draghi’s predicament: He simply can’t fix Europe without the help of the continent’s leaders:

The After Thursday:

So finally after all the wheeling and dealing Mario Draghi got his own way and opened Pandora’s box and now we wait! This is the fact that the ECB the “lender of last resort” has finally supported ” buying up debt” and letting it be sold as ” junk to the highest bidder.” We can all con ourselves this is for the good of the euro zone but really we know it is for the good markets and nobody else!The real winners short-term are the gamblers of our food,oil and lives!

The control of the masses by the few is how we should see it and the sheer fact that our lives are controlled by a simple but very effective piece of paper called simply a “share.” Well now we own a share of ” gambling debt” a little like an IOU that will never be repaid! So instead of having ” junk bonds” we now have junk funds, capitalise by gambling debt!

And as we all know when you are in debt one day you have to repay pay it or eventually declare bankruptcy!

#ben-bernanke, #draghi, #ecb, #european-central-bank, #italy, #jackson-hole, #jens-weidmann, #mario-draghi

Public and private debt and the imbalances of global savings

ECB

ECB (Photo credit: AlphaTangoBravo / Adam Baker)

ODA GNP

ODA GNP (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Introductory speech by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements 06/07/2012

It was both simple and to the point and it set me thinking about, how with the ECB {lender of last resort} quite an apt title given the present situation that the  Euro Zone countries find themselves.

In his speech he made 7 distinct remarks, that l will comment after each one!

First remark: 

My first remark is inspired by the very title of this session. In advanced countries, the average public debt to GNP ratio is 100%. In emerging countries, the figure is 30%. This is a very wide gap, and it represents one of the global economy’s largest imbalances. And one of the least mentioned. It also represents a complete reversal of the situation compared with just over twenty years ago. At that time, I remember well, I was chairman of the Paris Club, and emerging countries came to ask for the rescheduling of their debt.

My Comment: 

The part of this remark l found most of interest was simply 20 years ago emerging countries asked to reschedule their debt, this has now led to their figure being 30% of GNP ratio! Whereas at the time and we are talking 1992 a time of high interest rates and collapse of the property market and massive property portfolio losses, has a debt ratio of 100%! Now this can lead very easily to an assumption l will not make,but safe to say, that when interest rates were high and banks, insurance companies and finance houses were losing money, due to massive repossessions! Nobody was aware that in fact they were coining it in offshore domains by building portfolios of property assets themselves. So for the lender on the face of it they were losing ,in fact they were losing to gain.

This was the first time the borrowers of this country were taken for a ride and it enabled the ability using these massive portfolios,to get asset ownership  transferred  to an offshore domain! Also this allowed the raising of capital to build hedge funds that one day would eventually lead to the next financial crisis in 2008!

Second Remark:

Second remark, global demand is still fairly concentrated on the advanced countries. Not only is their debt higher, but their savings (as a ratio of GNP) are lower. The G7 countries alone still account for 56% of global consumption. The problem is clear. How can we hope to raise our level of consumption if we need to reduce our level of debt and increase our
savings? And if the advanced countries’ consumption stops growing, what will happen to global economic growth and particularly that of emerging countries with entirely export-oriented economies?

My Comment:

This has a hidden meaning of ” Debt Ratios ” is not clearly sign-posted for most people, but reveals itself,in what is not being said! Not so much by the speaker but the wording! In so much as we all know that debt causes a lack of income for purchasing power, leaving the economy of any country in a lack lustre state of growth! As any country is reliant on the ability to grow by borrowing!,In the late 1990’s most people had a savings account! This was called a ” rainy day fund ” but gradually this became eroded by ever-increasing consumerism! So now we have the lowest amount of savers in           ” real terms ” ever as people’s views on saving, moved from safe havens of respectability, to evermore riskier investments! Of course hoping for the ever larger returns of scale, enter bankers and especially the greedy ones! Now with burgeoning hedge funds as their property portfolios had grown with rising house prices, they were forever on the look out for that ever-growing band of risk takers! So with their especially designed products they entered the investment market, using those people wanting a great return on their hard-earned cash!

This l called ” O P M ” or ” Other Peoples Money” as it was just like a drug to the investment bankers and their products were designed, for a win win situation! In their favor of course and just like shearing sheep they went to the slaughter, but with the economy on the up ,their wool would grow back and they could be sheared again!

We know the upshot and of course we know the winners and losers and also we know as is stated in the second remark! We need to raise our level of savings and reduce our indebtedness? How of course exports but not us exporting to emerging countries and making the profits! No! They export and we pay the prices that will eventually move higher and higher as they amass wealth like the other rich countries have done for years.

This l have called the “cleft stick syndrome” as there is no way out as savers have nothing to save as they live in a world of ” Buy Now Pay Later ” or payday loans! So to fuel the economy all we do is print more money as in Quantitative Easing and inject it into the community to repay debt! You get the picture!

Third Remark:

Which brings me to my third remark: we need the emerging countries to continue investing their savings in advanced countries. We therefore need properly functioning international financial markets. In a world where the savings and financing needs are so geographically dislocated, properly functioning financial markets are a prerequisite for economic growth.
But, today the capital markets appear very unsettled and full of anomalies, and not just in Europe.

For example, certain sovereigns (the USA and UK for example) borrow today at historically very low nominal interest rates and at negative real interest rates despite the fact that their deficits are around 10% of GNP and that doubts exist regarding the future evolution of their debt levels.

Another anomaly: large corporations have accumulated unprecedented cash
reserves (several trillions of dollars) despite numerous highly profitable and
unexploited investment opportunities around the world, unsatisfied infrastructure needs and investment bottlenecks in commodities production.

My Comment: 

This remark l find the most interesting and requires a little consideration of     ” All that goes around comes around ” or my favourite ” We Reap What We Sow” and when it comes to wanting help, countries remember! The first paragraph says it all and we are asking a question ” We Need ” emerging countries to invest into advanced countries! There reply is evermore evident as swathes of London is now owned not by Londoner’s but by wealthier Chinese and our emerging countries cousins!

Why do they have to invest in our failing economies when they can acquire numbers of assets, by just waiting in the wings until we collapse! Why do they need to invest their money into our country when they can pick it up for a song when we can no longer keep our triple A ratings! Finally why do they need to lend us money when we cannot afford to repay what we owe, other than to control us and get us to do their bidding!

My personal feeling is if they need money from people we called second-rate citizens and we would provide contracts at best profitability for ourselves, are they now going to say ” Whatever you need ” just ask! No they are going to make us pay and pay to prove they can!

Fourth Remark:

We can identify two reasons for this situation:

The first is the general and exceptional uncertainty weighing on the global economy. Uncertainty makes liquid and safe assets more attractive. It makes investment less attractive. It can therefore partly explain the phenomena that I have mentioned.

The second reason is more structural: a malfunctioning of our financial
intermediation mechanisms. There are doubts about the solidity of banks in
numerous countries. Debt markets are profoundly disrupted and International movements of capital have been highly volatile over the last two years.

My Comment:

This is quite self-explanatory but hides one vital piece of information and the reason why we cannot ever return to boom or bust! The reason is hidden in the text of what  is not said and that is the word ” liquid” or as l prefer to call them ” fluid assets” meaning ever-changing! The actual fact that liquid has three states of wet, solid and in between has elude scientists for generations! The actual point of change is as vital to the asset as it is to the freezing and liquid state, but in financial terms this is not as clear! When you acquire an asset you acquire a version of itself in frozen or liquid form and are not aware of when its state will change! As in financial terms a frozen asset is a solid investment ” as in banking assets ” and a liquid asset is termed as changing and not as safe, even though we rely on liquid assets as we rely on solid! They are not the same because they are ever-changing making it impossible to quantify their true worth!

So the second paragraph only bear’s out the fact of how this liquid asset form has led to malfunctioning of financial markets, debt and borrowing ratios being out of alignment and capital markets unable to function as once they did! Due to undue pressure of the volatile markets!

Fifth Remark:

The intervention capacities of central banks are of course limited. They can remedy temporary market disruptions and situations of liquidity caused by uncertainty.Recently they have intervened to an unprecedented extent, as reflected in their balance sheets. But they cannot permanently substitute financial markets and banks when financial inter-mediation malfunctions. Likewise, low or zero interest rates can contribute to stabilising the economy in periods of crisis, but if maintained over a protracted period, they can create distortions, encourage the formation of bubbles and create risk for long-term investors.

Indeed, on this topic, I would like to make one observation. The question of monetary financing of deficits was raised by David Thesmar. Such financing cannot in any way resolve the problem of the dislocation between savings and investment, either at the national level or at the global level. Some central banks have developed large-scale public debt acquisition programmes. They have done so for reasons relating to immediate macroeconomic stabilisation… to go beyond the zero-interest rate limit. The Euro-system as well intervened on a much smaller scale when malfunctioning debt markets prevented the effective transmission of monetary policy impulses. There is not a single central bank that is seriously considering
the monetisation of deficits with the more or less declared intention of reducing the weight of debt via inflation. In my view, this notion is nothing more than a financial analyst’s fantasy. In fact, over the last six months, we have seen constant confirmation of the anti-inflationary stance of monetary policy with, for example, the FED actually establishing a quantitative definition of price stability for the first time (in fact, identical to the one used by the (Euro-system).

My Comment: 

This remark has a small number of areas that need exploring and relate to the how we got into the present situation? As we know high interest rates provide good savers returns and low-interests the reverse! So given the present global situation, should we be looking at higher or lower interest rates? Also remember with higher interest rates we fuel inflation as borrowing is lower and people need higher wages, so they borrow even more! Whereby lower interest rates make us more content and we still borrow but can afford the repayments, until austerity measures are imposed! Then people want to borrow even more and when lending becomes risky to banks after a crisis, they like the stock market pull in their horns in and ride out the storm!

So we have a dislocation between savings and investment and we cannot rectify ,one without the other as they need to be in balance! The ideal situation would be low debt, higher savings to lending ratios and affordable public services! Of course we can only achieve one of the three ,can you guess which one?

Well it is higher savings and the government will lead us very soon down the savings path by the means of investment into government bonds! Until now the sole domain of the public purse and these are now dwindling as tax receipts are down and investment into the country is at an all time low! So one avenue remains the ” tax payer ” they are now ready for shearing not by the banking fraternity but by our ” trusted government ” but with one problem ” How do they get us to part with our cash ” ? Simple by applying another scheme lost in translation ” Save As You Earn” to your pay-slip and telling all you ” Pay As You Earn ” people it is for the good of your country! Remember ” Patriotism” and we all stand together and help each other!

So close all tax loop holes [ except those that are not able to be seen] and show they can be trusted and then apply the cou de grat and we are sheared and paying to save our own money!

Sixth Remark:

Our immediate priority is therefore to construct or reconstruct the mechanisms and structures of a sound and efficient financial inter-mediation framework. That is why, at the euro area level, the financial union project is fundamental. At the global level, the FSB’s role is crucial in developing a robust technical, regulatory and prudential architecture, adapted to the interconnection of our economies.

My Comment:

This is a remark that sends a chill into anyone who understands the sheer consequence of this strategy! The fact that the Euro Zone now wants a fiscal policy has not l am sure passed anyone by! The fact that this would control all countries finances under one roof and who can be trusted to control this huge pot of money? Well not a single one, is eligible as all countries shouting for this job  have huge debts and massive lending! And one thing you never give any debtor is more money!

The last part of this remark is about the FSB acting as a control mechanism! Even though it is a paper tiger with no teeth and even less knowledge of the market they police!

So personally ” We do not need a fiscal union or policy or any other document ” we need ” GOOD FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT OF THEIR DEBTS” and nothing more!

Seventh Remark:

Seventh and last remark: fiscal policy and debt management. Here, I would say that we are all guilty of a certain degree of ambiguity, both at the market level and at the political level:

On the one hand we want public debt markets that are broad, deep and liquid,
because they form the base on which our entire financial system is built. In
particular, government bonds are the safest and the most liquid assets. They act as reserves of value for a large number of investors, starting with the central banks themselves which hold them as foreign currency reserves or as monetary policy collateral.

And on the other hand we want solvent States, i.e. with perfectly controlled deficits and levels of public debt, which logically places limits on the growth of public debt markets.

My Comment:

This remark on the face of it seems a little like an analogy! As did ” Social Media ” sites all under that  word ” free” account, sharing and widgets! All that was riddled with lies as all they wanted was your information! So it could be used and abused for financial gain! So why should fiscal and debt management work on the face of it? As we already have proof it does not – witness Libor and Euribor!

Conclusion:

This contradiction is known by economists as the “Triffin dilemma”. It was first identified in relation to the U.S. balance of payments deficits and the value of the dollar, but it can also be applied to fiscal equilibrium. The economy needs a growing volume of risk-free assets, but the more they are issued, the more risky they become.We cannot totally side-step this dilemma, but we can avoid making it worse. It is clearly not good for major developed countries to find themselves in a situation where their solvency is put into question, or to allow markets to think that under certain circumstances, they may be unable to honour all their commitments. But this is what we have done in Europe, against the better judgement of the ECB, by introducing the principle of private sector involvement. The idea is attractive in theory. However, its consequences for financial stability are extremely negative. There has never been any doubt about whether the United Kingdom or the United States would honour their debts. Today they are enjoying very favourable interest rates compared with Spain and Italy even though the latters’ fiscal fundamentals are better. I know that some attribute this difference in borrowing conditions to the actions of the UK and U.S. central banks. I do not agree. I believe that Europe has a major project ahead of it to recreate a broad, deep and liquid public debt market that is completely and unambiguously free from insolvency risk.

This last part was the conclusion and bears no remarks from me other than to say, whatever we are told was not the truth and what we found out was not the truth and eventually we find out that it is not the truth! So why should we believe those that covered up from the beginning will they not cover up at the end?

     

#bank-for-international-settlements, #business, #christian-noyer, #ecb, #economic, #economy, #emerging-markets, #funds, #high-interest-rates, #investing, #lender-of-last-resort, #united-states

Eurozone Crisis: ECB’s ‘Back Door Quantitative Easing’ Lifts Markets

European Central Bank

European Central Bank (Photo credit: kumbarov)

With borrowing comes responsibi­lity or so the story goes because this story gets more like a pantomime everyday. You can make your own mind up to which one and who plays certain characters but now we have a benefactor good olde ECB and what have they offered this Christmast­ide well money of course, well they are a bank. But not just any bank but the bank of last resort and what does the one in [drag-hi] do but buy up all the debt of other countries.

Now we should all be saying well done but instead we are saying he`s behind you and his name is not Abanazar, but something much worse the ” Ghost of Christmas Of Yet To Come ” namely a huge ” Debt Mountain ” but in the meantime people will still dress up and act out the pantomime until the very last act.

The it will be CURTAIN`S
Read the Article at HuffingtonPost

#bank, #bloomberg, #christmas, #ecb, #european-central-bank, #european-sovereign-debt-crisis, #eurozone, #greece, #reuters, #spain, #wsj