Delphi Method of Predicting The Future For Mankind

The Delphi method (/ˈdɛlf/ del-fy) is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic,

Delphi Method Implementation

Delphi Method Implementation (Photo credit: Martin Erpicum)

interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgement’s. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the “correct” answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.

Delphi is based on the principle that forecasts (or decisions) from a structured group of individuals are more accurate than those from unstructured groups. The technique can also be adapted for use in face-to-face meetings, and is then called mini-Delphi or Estimate-Talk-Estimate (ETE). Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages over another structured forecasting approach, prediction markets.

The Delphi method was developed at the beginning of the Cold War to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. In 1944, General Henry H. Arnold ordered the creation of the report for the U.S. Army Air Corps on the future technological capabilities that might be used by the military.

Different approaches were tried, but the shortcomings of traditional forecasting methods, such as theoretical approachquantitative easing or trend extrapolation, in areas where precise scientific laws have not been established yet, quickly became apparent. To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by Project RAND during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher. It has been used ever since, together with various modifications and formulations, such as the Imen-Delphi procedure.

MY PERSONAL VIEW:

When l started researching this area of our lives, l was surprised at what l was able to find out based on a few simple but affective, measures! If we

Delphi-Method-Implementation-Layout-Moderator

Delphi-Method-Implementation-Layout-Moderator (Photo credit: Martin Erpicum)

simply take the ” Delphi Method “ to real-time – Real-time Delphi (RTD) it becomes an advanced form of the Delphi method. The advanced method “is a consultative process that uses computer technology” to increase efficiency of the Delphi process. Thus making computations firstly much quicker and also a lot more accurate, but also and this was a real humdinger that control of the population had been controlled a lot further back than is first thought.

At present the world talks incessantly  about global financial crisis, economic gloom and political unrest, the fact that our lives have been controlled to such an effect, that we follow like sheep, lapping up the technology on offer, such as the latest must have, whatever! Then look deeper and we start to see the real control is that someone somewhere wanted us to have our “Golden Age” as this would allow greater manipulation of people. The companies such as Microsoft, convinced us so long ago of the benefit of computers, then others joined the throng and Apple came up with the ipad and iphone and the rest followed!

If you want to control a greater number of people using a few then you need to provide what these people want, thus by controlling want, just like a young child! You then occasionally remove it and make them struggle, {Global Financial Crisis} so their only reason for life, is to want it back! Thus when you give it back they are eternally grateful {And do not ask were it came from, or even who supplies their daily bread} and will buckle down and follow the edict they provide! I call this control “The need for want and not the want for need” as we should not strive for treasures on earth, but look for reward in heaven, we can follow this through {pardon the pun} to control by auto-suggestion our {hopes and fears} and this can relate to terrorist attacks or a scape goat nation to blame such as the Islamic Nations! The fact that we then as many leaders have said, have need of a War to provide a simply focus away from what is really going on and of course ,as a number of  the “Bildebergs “  are purported to have said, or agreed as a way forward, for the human race! Thus a simple and effective way to cull people, thus not being blamed but passing the buck to the scape goat nation, already in waiting following such a real focused event namely {911} and thus {killing two birds with one stone} and at the same time, finding a reason for funding the latest War effort, and improving the economies of the West at the same time! As we all know War provides profit for some and this time thanks to people like the Bildeberg’s the chosen few!

As you can imagine l could continue this post for ages but my main point was to provide a way to see it is not always our free-will, that makes decisions, but with the right technology, our want to have everything and our own want to share our lives and all about our lives through social media, we provide these people with everything, they ever wanted! Thus enabling us to be controlled! This is the beginning of a “New World Order” and we will be grateful to them for looking after us and protecting us from harm, from terrorist attacks and the other things that will upset our lives, leaving us with-out the latest technology, controlled by them, in ways we can as yet only imagine is possible!

 

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